CRS
Chandler, Arizona, United States

There's an old saying. If you don't want someone to join a crowd, you ask them, "If everyone were jumping off of a cliff, would you?" Well, I have. So my answer would be "Yes". True story.
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SUMMER 2011 MOVIE PREDICTIONS PART 3!

Friday, July 08, 2011

this entry brought to you by muse, "starlight"


Yes, I've noticed that this is the end of the second week of July, and here I am writing my predictions for some movies that have already happened. This is the reason why, in years past, I wrote all three months in a row, so this sort of thing wouldn't happen. Nevertheless, it did happen, so to compensate, I have been purposefully avoiding movie-related news and reviews for the past few weeks. I don't know how well Transformers did at the box office. I don't know if Zookeeper has a fresh rating. Believe me, it's been gnawing at me to keep up with the news, but in order to keep my predictions honest-- a fact that I admit I am the only person who cares about-- I have avoided everything. So now I am going to write this, click "post", and then immediately head over to the entertainment blogs and see how I did.


July 1st

Transformers 3: Dark of the Moon
Predicting Michael Bay movies-- particularly Transformers movies is so difficult. On the one hand, you know it's going to be bad, but the question of "how bad" comes up. I only saw the first Transformers movie, and I gave it a positive review because I had very, very low expectations, but yeah, it was a very bad movie. Apparently the Revenge of the Fallen was even worse. Michael Bay has acknowledged that the second one was awful and swears up and down this one will be better. I cannot tell one way or another from the trailer; all his trailers look exciting on the one hand, but they are also always exactly the same thing. Stuff blows up. Shia LaBeouf looks up in the sky at something. Some character talks about how the stakes are so high this time. And there are repeated cuts to a woman that looks like she was made out of plastic who gets no lines but is intended on being the love interest. Dark of the Moon hits all these familiar marks, and since I haven't seen Transformers 2, the bulk of the trailer could be entirely from that one, and not a new, seperate movie. The big question with Michael Bay movies is how much money they will make, and I am absolutely terrible at reading audiences for them. I would love to think that people are tired of this franchise, and that this really and truly will be the one that doesn't break records, the one that is considered a disappointment. And there's a distinct possibility that might happen this time, as Dark of the Moon is a 3D movie, and each 3D release has been disappointing more than the last, box office wise. People are definitely tired of it. But then again, if people were going to see one 3D movie this year, it would probably be Transformers 3.
Prediction Direct Hit, obviously. Transformers 3 will outperform nearly everything this summer. The real question is whether or not it will outperform its predecessor. I say no, it will not. I also say it will come in as the number two movie of the summer, behind one other movie.

Larry Crowne
Directed by Tom Hanks, I was actually looking forward to seeing this trailer, and was disappointed in the lack of laughs. It's true that I didn't expect it to be laugh-out-loud, but the trailer had a tone that it was funnier than it actually was. But still. It's Tom Hanks, and he's not doing a movie where he looks like he's going to be nominated for an Oscar, and Julia Roberts looks charming. Also, Tom Hanks directed That Thing You Do, which was great, and hasn't directed anything since, so that hopefully this will be a more personal, close to the heart project for everyone involved.
Prediction Sleeper hit. Adults like going to the movies too, and with the obvious eye sore that is Transformers 3, there are going to be a significant amount of grown-ups who just want to have a night out at the movies, and this will be the movie they pick. Not a #2 box office draw, or probably even #3, but it'll do fine for itself and make its budget back.

July 8th

Zookeeper
People love Kevin James. I don't know why. Movies with animals in it that talk normally do very well. I don't know why. Put them together, and you're going to get a hit. I can't say that this trailer isn't without its charms, except that I can tell the entire plot already, and the TGIFridays plug right there in the trailer is pretty egregious. It's also weird that Rosario Dawson is almost completely ignored, even though we all know she's going to be the girl he'll end up with by the time the credits roll anyway.
Prediction Hit. This looks to do exactly what Night at the Museum did a few years ago, and with Cars 2 having been out for a couple weeks by this point, there's plenty of room for it to shine for that family movie income. I don't even have to mention that it'll get a rotten rating though, do I?

Horrible Bosses
Y'know how Bridesmaids looked hilarious as a female-oriented comedy? And how Hangover 2 looked like the exact same movie as the first one and seemed impossible not to disappoint? This looks like the guy oriented comedy of the summer that looks like it will deliver. Everyone involved looks hilarious. Remember when everyone couldn't get enough of Tom Cruise's character in Tropic Thunder, but when you saw the movie you were like, "enh"? Colin Farrell here as a balding asshole boss looks like the real deal, and I almost want to see the movie entirely because of him.

Prediction Hit. The movie looks like it will deliver on its promise, and it has a tone going for it that is very similar to what Date Movie had last year, and will probably bring in that kind of money.

The Ward
I haven't seen any good horror movie trailers this summer, and while summer isn't usually the horror movie time of year, there are usually one or two that do well (The Strangers a few years back, Drag Me To Hell last year), so I saw this trailer with excitement. Then I noticed that the trailer I saw said "This January"-- uh oh. This is a movie that has been pushed back from the drop off period of January where they'll release all their shit that couldn't fit elsewhere, to trying to make a buck in the summer. Not a good sign. The trailer looked sufficiently creepy, but there's something about that release that smells fishy.
Prediction Miss. This will come and go without any notice whatsoever.

Ironclad
Here's the thing. I honestly feel like there might be something here, that this will end up being a good movie that will review well. My problem is, does anybody give a shit about these epic swords and armor period pieces? Yes, there seems to be some fine actors here, and the reality is, this movie could be something very different than what the trailer implies, but there is absolutely nothing here that makes it stand out from the pack. In April, this movie would've stood a chance. Not in July.
Prediction Miss. This movie has a 25 million dollar budget, and it'll make that back, but no more.

July 15th

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
 It's safe to assume that most of the movie going public has seen at least one of the Harry Potter movies, and generally speaking, most people that have even the smallest of passing interests in Harry Potter has seen all of them, even if not in the theaters, even if it's just with kids/siblings/friends who are into it. But what's interesting about this sort of thing, about the end of one of the longest running franchises of all time-- there hasn't been a year in my kid's entire life where there hasn't been a Harry Potter movie-- is that it's impossible to not get swept in its finality if you've ever had even the slightest inkling of an interest. There will be people who have never seen a Harry Potter movie in the theater who will be heading there to see it. There will be people who have never seen Harry Potter who, over the past few weeks, have been renting the movies to catch up so they can go see it, because why the hell not.
Prediction Mega Hit. Trying to predict which will do better, this, or Transformers, is trickier than you might think. On the one hand, Harry Potter has never been the number one movie of the summer. Don't get me wrong, Harry Potter movies are immensely popular and always do very, very well, but number one at the box office for the summer will be an accomplishment. Transformers is always number one, but there has got to be some fatigue, and if a Harry Potter movie can do it, this is the one. I'll be crossing my fingers.

Winnie the Pooh
The hand-drawn animation looks gorgeous-- when was the last time you saw a hand-drawn animated movie in theaters? Probably Lilo & Stitch, way the fuck back in 2002. And it's Winnie the Pooh, so I can't tell you how refreshing it is to see a trailer for a kid's movie without fart jokes. On the other hand, it's being released the same day as Harry Potter. What the fuck.
Prediction Miss, and that makes me very sad. I don't know why they didn't release this movie in early May when there was much less competition, or hell, not in the summer at all-- Meet the Robinsons was an original, non-Pixar Disney movie that did very well for itself, and it was released in March. Since this is the kind of kid's movies that's not going to interest kids above the age of 7, it doesn't make sense to release it when it's being released.

July 22nd

Captain America
This movie is a big question mark. With The Green Lantern it definitely felt like a giant "miss", and I wanted to go so far as to call it a flop. With Captain America you've got a bunch of factors working against it. For one thing, as much as the character is iconic and has been ingrained in American culture, behind perhaps only Superman, Batman, and Spider-Man, he's still only a C-tier character in terms of cultural relevance today. There's also the fact that Joe Johnston, the director, has never done anything terrible, but has never done anything particularly inspiring, either (Jurassic Park 3, Hidalgo, The Wolfman). And then of course there's superhero fatigue. On the other hand, the trailer looks really good, and stands out from the other superhero movies; he's fightin' Nazis instead of Gods and overworldly aliens; also, he cannot fly and doesn't have super powers that rely entirely on CGI, so in terms of a good ol' action movie, there might be a lot here to enjoy.
Prediction Miss. And when I say "miss" I don't mean Green Lantern levels of miss, and I do think that Captain America will have a solid opening weekend. I just think it will drop heavily from there and not make that much of a dent over all. I just feel too much viewer apathy with this one, and while I suspect we'll have a "fresh" rating at Rottentomatoes.com, I don't think it'll matter enough.

Friends With Benefits
Didn't this movie come out already? But with Ashton Kutcher? Or something? And it was called No Strings Attached? What?
Prediction Mild success. As much as this trailer lacked laughs, looks predictable, and will be rotten, it's got Justin Timberlake, who is hot right now, and Mila Kunis, who is hot right now. The people that watch these movies and drag their boyfriends to them-- or their friends with benefits (see what I did there?) to these movies will want to see this one above the other ones exactly like it. I think. So as for its total, it'll do whatever No Strings Attached did, but better.

July 29th

Cowboys and Aliens
 What's this? A really excellent looking action trailer that isn't based on a superhero comic book and isn't a sequel? Holy shit, is that James bond and fucking Indiana Jones as cowboys? And then fucking aliens show up? And it doesn't look tongue-in-cheek and silly, either? This, my friends, along with Super 8, looks like the one of the most exciting trailers of this summer, and I positively cannot wait to see it. What's more, with director Jon Favreau on, who did the first two Iron Man movies, we know that it will deliver. The thing is, I didn't love Iron Man as much as everybody else did, but Favreau is a capable director, and the material here looks promising. It also echos of early Spielburg (who Executive Produced), although not nearly as much as Super 8. I can't wait to see this.
Prediction Direct Hit. In fact, I am going to say this will be the surprise hit of the summer, coming in well over its budget state side alone, will get a fresh rating, and will end up doing better than all the other non-sequels.

Crazy, Stupid, Love.
When I saw the title, I groaned. When I saw Steve Carrell in it, my hopes got up. When there were no laughs in the first minute of the trailer, I thought, okay, this is more serious territory for Carrell-- good for him. Then there were things that looked like they were supposed to be funny, but weren't. The thing is, I'm okay with comedies being a little more low key, with being about something and actually allowing themselves to have feeling and real characters instead of just laugh laugh laugh. But I came away from this trailer having no idea what this movie is supposed to be. I'm not saying it's going to be bad, because this might be a movie that's actually pretty deep and the marketing department had no idea how to instill that into 2 and a half minutes. I'm just saying I was completely nonplussed by what they decided to show me.
Prediction Miss. I'm sure the budget is low, and I'm sure it'll do fine in terms of making its money back. But it'll come and go without much of a fuss.

The Smurfs
Ugh. Remember how repulsive Alvin and the Chipmunks looked? And how even repulsiver The Squeakwel looked? This looks as bad as the latter. It looks idiotic, and I pray for the souls of the poor kids who get dragged to every single theatrically released family movie over the course of a summer. On the other hand, Neil Patrick Harris is much, much more charming than Jason Lee, so there's that.
Prediction Flop. As appalling as Alvin and the Chipmunks looked, it somehow managed to make a whole shitload of money. I am hoping that when people see this, even if they were a fan of the that particular abomination, they'll say "That looks like they're ripping off Alvin and will stay away.
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with love from CRS @ 12:09 PM 

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