CRS
Chandler, Arizona, United States

There's an old saying. If you don't want someone to join a crowd, you ask them, "If everyone were jumping off of a cliff, would you?" Well, I have. So my answer would be "Yes". True story.
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SUMMER 2011 MOVIE PREDICTIONS PART 2!

Thursday, June 02, 2011

this entry brought to you by modest mouse, “king rat”


June 3rd

X-Men: First Class I’ve watched several trailers for this movie, and I still have the hardest time deciding what I think of it. For myself personally, the movie looks excellent. It looks like a more character-focused, slow paced, moody film-- the moody music in every trailer certainly helps that, but from all the interactions with the characters we see, the movie looks to follow through. But here’s the thing: while there is certainly action in the trailers, does it look nearly as pryotechnic, and, well, awesome as the first two films to attract people other than people like me? If you combine this with comic book overload this summer, it’s difficult to tell if anybody is going to give a shit. But then again, Batman Begins was a success despite its relative lack of bombast, so First Class could go either way. I’ll tell you what: If X-Men: First Class ends up being successful, this shows that audiences have officially accepted superhero movies as a mainstay in action films and won’t get tired of them for a long time to come, so long as they remain quality.
Prediction Modest Hit. I have a hard time predicting what this movie will do, but since I have to make a call, I’m going to say First Class won’t break 200 million, and if it does, it’ll just barely. But this will be enough, combined with its International numbers, to be defined a solid enough success. I’m crossing my fingers it does well.

June 10th

Super 8 Two weeks in a row of unknowns when it comes to movies. The trailer looks fascinating, with J.J. Abrams making an obvious homage to producer Steven Spielberg’s E.T.. This movie looks to be filled with that childish wonder that made that era of Spielberg’s movies so wonderful-- simultaneously frightening and yet filled with excitement; watching this preview should make anyone in their 30s wonder why in the world they don’t make movies like this anymore. The only thing that could possibly work against it is a bad taste from Cloverfield, which looked awesome with spectacular special effects, but ended up disappointing everyone who saw it.
Prediction Hit. Because between Cloverfield and this, Abrams made Star Trek, which was universally accepted as “awesome”. Still, we’re not talking monster hit here, but it will do just fine for itself-- definitely better than Cloverfield, and will probably cross the 150 million barrier.

June 17th

Green Lantern Jesus Christ did this trailer look bad, and what’s more, I don’t know a single person who thinks it looks good. The main problem here isn’t just superhero overload, it’s specifically origin story overload. I don’t know how superhero movies from this point forward are supposed to handle it, but we’ve seen a million times heroes getting brand new powers, getting used to brand new powers, and having that shock/joy/exploration segment that’s been in every super powered movie opening chapter, from Superman all the way forward. This trailer hits all the wrong notes. Again, I don’t know how they just jump into a story without explaining everything, but it even looks like Ryan Reynolds gets a training montage. Also, he looks stupid in that costume. On the plus side, Green Lantern has as bunch of cool aliens in it, and that might be enough to separate it from the rest of the superhero pack-- but I don’t think anybody is going to care.
Prediction Miss. Apparently the studio thinks this will do really well. It will not. In fact, I’d venture to say that it will flop, but it does have lots of cool CGI stuff and might end up getting a decent Rottentomatoes score. This seems like it will be the very definition of “miss”.

Mr Popper’s Penguins Counterprogramming ah-hoy! After weeks and weeks of superheros (with still more superheroes to come), why not counterprogram with family friendly Jim Carrey? I don’t think anyone is expecting this to be a juggernaut, but I think this will be a welcome change of pace during the summer. Besides, who doesn’t like penguins?
Prediction Modest hit. Every so often Jim Carrey makes a family friendly comedy ala Liar Liar, and Bruce Almighty, and they always do well. This won’t be an exception, even if it doesn’t light the box office on fire.

June 24th

Cars 2 So what gives? Cars was the least critically acclaimed Pixar movie, and, at the time, it was it’s lowest performing-- why in the world would there be a Cars 2 and not, say, The Incredibles 2? Because of merchandising. Turns out Disney sold more toys based on it than any other Pixar movie (even more than Toy Story, which seems impossible-- they’re already toys!). The trailer gives me mixed messages. On the one hand, it does actually look like a lot of fun. But there’s something about the Pixar magic that just doesn’t feel like it’s there-- this looks like the trailer for another animation studio’s movie, and for kids fare, it looks great. But it doesn’t look anywhere near as captivating as Up, or Wall-E, or nearly as funny as Ratatouille. Still, I cried foul when they made a Toy Story 2, and that totally warranted its existence (and then some!), so if anybody can do it, it’s Pixar.
Prediction: Hit. But I still have to say, this does not look like it will do as well as Kung-Fu Panda 2, which was a surprise hit a few years ago and almost made more money than Wall-E. Cars 2 will sell more toys than just about everything, but it’ll fall short of Kung-Fu Panda 2 in the box office.

Bad Teacher I don’t like Cameron Diaz. Somehow, America still likes Cameron Diaz, and I don’t know why. Surprise, however-- this trailer looks pretty funny. It’s going to have gross-out gags, it’s going to have some eye-rolling humor-- We get it, we get it, she’s a teacher, but she’s bad. Still, I was actually taken by surprise by how good this trailer looks, and regardless of how well it does with the critics, 1) It is a movie marketed towards women that doesn’t involve a goddamn wedding, and 2) you can see where the love interest angle is going to go, but the fact that the main character isn’t completely lovable means this might not have to go in the directions most chick-centered films go. In short, this looks like a ladies’ night out that won’t be completely regrettable, just like Bridesmaids.
Prediction Hit, and it looks like it will deserve it. Still, I’m trying to decide which will do better, this or Bridesmaids; this definitely has name recognition going for it, but Bridesmaids has the “Hangover, but for ladies” word-of-mouth. I think I’m going to give it to Bad Teacher, because it’ll have a much bigger opening weekend than Bridesmaids did.
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with love from CRS @ 10:45 AM 

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