CRS
Chandler, Arizona, United States

There's an old saying. If you don't want someone to join a crowd, you ask them, "If everyone were jumping off of a cliff, would you?" Well, I have. So my answer would be "Yes". True story.
Profile continued . . .

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SUMMER 2011 MOVIE PREDICTIONS PART 1!

Friday, May 06, 2011

this entry brought to you by the dodos, "fools"


Let's get this out of the way, in case anyone reading this has never read my blog before. I didn't get a chance to do this last year because I was using a much older computer, and watching videos on-line was impossible. I've done this a bunch of times, and it might seem ultimately meaningless because I'm just a dude with a blog, I don't have any inside information, I don't read the trades, I'm not a professional, I'm just a guy that works the night shift who fancies himself a movie fan. The reason I try to do this every year is because I like it. Sports fans have theirs stats and their bets and their predictions of who is going to go all the way. I could give a shit about sports. But I love movies, and everyone has opinions on trailers and predictions as to what will do the best. I like to post my predictions, I like to get real specific, and I like to grade myself on how I did at the end of the summer, all based entirely on trailers and what I think people's interest in them is/will be. Let's get this started.


May 6th

Thor
I think it goes without saying that if mainstream audiences aren't already burned out on superhero movies, they certainly will be after this summer, with four or five of them coming in the next three months, and three of them all coming from Marvel. Even if none of them are sequels, there's certainly going to be a lot of sameness in all of them, if just by the fact that they're all superhero movies. Thor has several things going for it, though. Like all the superhero movies this year, it's an origin story. Unlike all the others, though, Thor is a god, and the audience doesn't have to sit through a first act of learning how a schlub got to learn how to punch holes in the earth, and we don't have to go through the dreary process of watching him to learn to use his powers. This means we get more action, and, if the writers and director so choose to go in this direction, the actual characters can move in more fleshed out, interesting directions. And with Kenneth Branagh directing (What? How the hell did that happen?), there's a chance that will happen. Also, the idea that Asgard, this whole other realm where the gods live, is always looming in the background and we get to spend time there, makes this one seem like it'll be worth watching. Which is definitely a good thing, because out of essentially all the superheros getting their own movies, I thought that Thor always seemed like the weakest link.
Prediction Mega Hit. Marvel put Thor in the first week of May, the sweet spot that Iron Man had several years ago and went on to making insane amounts of money and ending with a gross behind only The Dark Knight, and I think it was smart of them to do so, especially since the following week's competition looks very weak, and it will likely be #1 for two weeks in a row. It's obvious that it will make over 100 million in less than five days, and while I do not think it will break records, Thor will doubtlessly be in the top five performers of the summer, even if it gets the average Rottentomatoes "good action movie" rating of low 70s, which I think it will. If it gets even higher-- in the 80s, say-- then a top 3 is possible.

Something Borrowed
Whenever I do my Summer blockbuster predictions and I click on the trailer for some fucking romantic comedy, I always say to myself "I won't do these this year, they're such a waste of time." But then I realize that nearly every year one of these movies does really well for themselves as counter programming, and goes on to make 100 million dollars despite, from the trailer, looking completely indistinguishable from the other ones. I am then forced to put them on the list, because the whole point is to predict, and if I totally miss a sleeper hit, then what's the point?
Prediction Miss. You know how I said that there's always one that somehow makes 100 million dollars? This won't be it. The trailer looks utterly generic, and while John Krasinski's place in it means that it might be sufferable if you're stuck on a plane, I can't think of a more generic premise.

May 13th

Priest Did you ever see Legion? Or Underworld? Or, to a lesser extent, Constantine? Well, this looks exactly like those movies. Very dark, blue-ish color scheme, generic looking demons (excuse me, they're vampires), lots of shooting, lots of religious iconography, probably an extraordinarily convulated backstory despite a stupidly straightforward plot. It's even directed by the guy who did Legion, and stars the same dude! This is to say, this movie looks like fun for those that like this kind of stuff, and the fact that it's in 3D might make it worth it to those who like the genre but feel this trailer doesn't do anything new, which it doesn't.
Prediction Mild hit. And by "Hit" I don't mean that it'll make hundreds of millions of dollars, I mean that it'll make is budget back in a weekend or two, even if it only comes in second or third place (and it will), even if the movie gets a rotten rating (and it will). As for total gross, how much did Legion make? This will make about that much, maybe a little more because of the cost of seeing 3D movies.

Bridesmaids
It's The Hangover, except with chicks. The trailer makes sure you know this by saying "From the Producers of The Hangover". It's being produced by Judd Apatow. And, despite the fart joke in the trailer-- ugh-- this movie looks like it will completely deliver on that promise. It's got funny women in it-- Kristen Wiig! Maya Rudoloph! And Melissa McCarthy-- you know, the overweight girl in the trailer-- looks like she's delivering some real comic chops. Dare I say it? The redband trailer had more laughs in it than The Hangover 2's trailer.
Prediction Hit. Remember how I said there's always a chick flick that becomes a huge success story and makes over 100 million dollars? This is definitely it. I don't think we're talking about Hangover money here, but I think that Bridesmaids will do very, very well for itself, you're going to see commercials touting that it's "The #1 comedy in America", and it actually looks like it deserves it. This movie will make more money than Priest, I guarantee it. Probably in the 130 million range.

May 20th

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
I'm sure people are getting burned out on superhero movies, and I'm positive people are burned out by these Pirates movies. I never saw the second or third Pirates, and I know they did well enough to warrant a fourth movie (for a second planned trilogy), but, just talking to people, it was difficult to find anyone that actually seemed to enjoy them much. Disney seems to agree-- while the last two were given cooshy June/July opening weekend slots in order to maximize dollars, here they're opening in May, which is where you put your new franchises. I have a pretty firm belief that with director Rob Marshall (Chicago) on board, this will be different enough to make it worth watching if you're still interested in what Jack Sparrow is up to, but I'm also disappointed that the trailer is exactly the same as all the others. In other words, I don't really know what would make someone see a fourth Pirates movie.
Prediction Hit. While there were certainly some diminishing returns in the last two movies-- Pirates 2 made over 430 million, Pirates 3 made just over 300-- it's not like these movies weren't massive money makers, and it's not like they're not sure things overseas. I don't think this one will come anywhere near the 430 million of the second movie, but it's reasonable that its American gross will nestle pretty closely to the 300 million of the second movie. As for critical reception, I'm guessing this one will still get a "rotten" on Rottentomatoes, but it won't score as lowly as the third one.

May 27th
The Hangover 2
I actually hinted at it with The Bridesmaids when I said that trailer had more laughs in it. I should specify by saying that The Hangover 2's trailer has no laughs, which is very disappointing, because I thought the original Hangover looked like it was going to be a lot of fun, even if I didn't predict that anyone would see it. I thought it would do Forgetting Sarah Marshall numbers. It did a whole helluva lot more than that. Finding a read for this trailer, however, is much, much more difficult. When I heard that there would be a second Hangover I wondered how they would avoid it being also-ran, but had confidence they'd be able to deliver. Then Todd Philip's second movie with Galifinakis, Due Date, ended up being no good. And then there's this trailer, which has a major case of deja vu. I'm confident that there will be laughs here, but I'm pretty sure they can't recapture that magic, and I'm not sure if nearly as many are interested.
Prediction Hit, but not a big hit. This is a real, real tough one for me. I ended up being way off with my prediction of the original being a "miss" when I did these in 2009, but I loved that trailer, and was perfectly happy to be wrong about that one. I would also like to be wrong about this one, but I can't shake the feeling that I'm not. Don't get me wrong, this one will do fine: It'll make 120-150 million dollars, which is more than its budget, so they'll do fine in terms of making money, probably ending up as the number one comedy of the summer. But I don't think this one will cross 200 million dollars; I don't even think it'll do half of what The Hangover did. And you know what? I'm sure the studio knows it won't. But I also don't think this will do as well critically, and will probably end up "rotten".

Kung Fu Panda 2
 I was super duper wrong about The Hangover when I did my predictions two years ago; when I did my predictions of Kung-Fu Panda I was even wronger. I think it was just "CGI animated animal" fatigue, because I was not at all interested in the original movie. Sure, all animated movies make millions of dollars, which is why there are so many of them (and when you add in 3D, they're always, always a sure bet), but I didn't think it would do well critically, and I did not think it would do better than your average kids' movie. I was wrong on all accounts. The movie was awesome, the critics gushed over it, and it did spectacularly well. It's funny; I still don't think the trailer for Kung-Fu Panda 2 looks any better or any worse than any other animated movie, but at least with this one I'm confident that it would be very, very difficult to screw it up.
Prediction Direct Hit. This will be the number one movie of the week, easily, and will easily make over 300 million dollars. Thanks to 3D, it will also make more money than its predecessor. There's a real, real good chance this will be in the top 5 movies of the summer. The real question is, which animated movie will do better, Cars 2, or Kung-Fu Panda? The obvious answer would be Panda, considering the original Cars didn't do that well compared to other Pixar movies; what you might not know is that Cars was a merchandising monster, selling more toys and other tie-in stuff than any other Pixar movie, so this won't be as much of a drubbing as it might seem initially. Still, Kung-Fu Panda will do better.
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with love from CRS @ 11:07 AM 

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